The risks of the Padres trading Xander Bogaerts are clear. When Bogaerts signed his 11-year, $280 million deal in December 2022, San Diego fans had mixed feelings. On one hand, they secured a solid hitting shortstop for years to come. On the other, it was a lengthy, fully guaranteed contract for a 30-year-old player.
Now entering the third year of the deal, Bogaerts has not met expectations, and his name has surfaced in trade discussions. However, moving him involves more than just parting with a shortstop. His hefty contract comes with complications, including the fact that he’ll be 40 by its conclusion. The price to convince another team to take him remains uncertain, but any trade could cost the Padres more than they anticipate.
The Financial and Prospect Costs of Trading Bogaerts
With fans growing impatient over Bogaerts’ struggles, trade rumors have gained traction, especially as the Padres face financial challenges. The biggest hurdle in a trade is his contract. Any team willing to take on a 32-year-old coming off a career-worst season would likely expect San Diego to cover part of his salary. This would leave the Padres paying for a player no longer on their roster—an undesirable situation, especially with backloaded contracts for Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado pushing payroll higher in 2029. It might be wiser for the Padres to wait and trade a larger portion of Bogaerts’ contract later.
If covering part of the contract isn’t enough, the Padres may need to dip into their farm system—a move fraught with risk. Trading away top prospects like Ethan Salas or Leo De Vries, who are considered future franchise players, could backfire. Past trades of prospects such as Trea Turner, Max Fried, Emmanuel Clase, and Corey Kluber have left lasting regret. Losing another potential star just to offload Bogaerts could have serious long-term consequences.
The Replacement Problem
If Bogaerts were traded, the question arises: who would replace him? While the Padres initially faced criticism for having too many infielders, the options to fill Bogaerts’ spot—like Tyler Wade, Mason McCoy, Eguy Rosario, or Jake Cronenworth—aren’t championship-caliber starters. Ha-Seong Kim could be the best choice, but his return is uncertain.
Bogaerts’ Value
Fans should also remember that Bogaerts is still a good player despite a down year. In his first full season with the Padres, he led the team in batting average and hits, and was second in OPS on a roster that included Juan Soto, Tatis, and Machado. Writing him off now might be premature, but a third disappointing season could intensify scrutiny on his contract.
For now, trading Bogaerts seems unwise, as the potential costs—in money, prospects, and team stabilityare too high. However, time is running out for the deal to prove its worth.
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