Offseason speculation has linked Nolan Arenado to the Philadelphia Phillies in potential trade discussions. If such a deal were to materialize, it would likely involve Alec Bohm heading elsewhere since Arenado would take over at third base. However, the St. Louis Cardinals have no real use for Bohm, making a three-team trade a plausible framework.
To clarify, this is purely a hypothetical exercise. While rumors suggest the Phillies may move on from Bohm, the rationale remains unclear. Bohm is affordable, solidly average at worst, and moving him feels like a lateral step. For now, this remains a “believe it when it happens” scenario.
That said, let’s dive into the possibilities.
Who Could Be the Third Team?
Identifying a third team for this trade requires careful elimination. Teams with established or emerging third basemen, like the Orioles, Guardians, Astros, Mariners, Braves, Dodgers, and others, seem unlikely candidates. Similarly, rebuilding teams such as the White Sox, Nationals, and Angels likely won’t want a short-term solution like Bohm.
Excluding smaller-market teams unwilling to take on significant payroll—such as the Royals, Rays, and Marlins—narrows the field further. The Athletics, Yankees, and Mets emerge as potential options, though each comes with caveats. The A’s, while eager to add payroll, are better off giving at-bats to young players like Darrell Hernaiz. The Mets have a glut of infield prospects and seem unlikely partners unless they want Bohm as a stopgap.
This leaves the Yankees as perhaps the most realistic third-party participant.
Why Would the Phillies Do This?
The most plausible motivation for the Phillies to trade Bohm is to acquire high-leverage relief pitching, potentially targeting someone like Cardinals closer Ryan Helsley. If the Phillies can’t acquire Helsley directly, Bohm could serve as a trade chip to facilitate a three-team deal.
Breaking Down the Value
Evaluating the trade assets sheds light on what each team might gain. Arenado’s contract is close to neutral in terms of value, while Helsley offers around $10 million in surplus. Assuming the Cardinals contribute $15 million to balance Arenado’s contract, they would expect roughly $25 million in return.
Bohm, projected at 2.7 WAR for 2024, has an estimated surplus value of $31.9 million through 2026. This surplus aligns closely with what the Cardinals would need in exchange for Arenado and Helsley. However, for the deal to work, the third team must contribute an additional $7 million in value to the Phillies and around $25 million to the Cardinals.
A Key Addition: Nick Castellanos
One way to align values is by including Nick Castellanos in the trade. His contract is widely considered a negative-value asset for the Phillies, and moving it could help balance the financial dynamics of the deal. Castellanos could appeal to a team like the A’s or Yankees looking to absorb salary while receiving additional prospects.
Sample Trade Framework
Here’s a potential structure:
- Phillies receive: Nolan Arenado, relief pitching (e.g., Ryan Helsley).
- Cardinals receive: Alec Bohm, a prospect from the Yankees or third team.
- Yankees (or third team) receive: Nick Castellanos (with salary offset) and a catching prospect from the Cardinals.
Does This Trade Make Sense?
The trade addresses each team’s needs in theory but has limitations. The Cardinals would need enticing young talent for Arenado and Helsley, and the Phillies would have to part with Bohm and likely prospects. For the Yankees or a similar team, the appeal hinges on Castellanos’ salary being offset by other assets.
Final Thoughts
After significant analysis, the likelihood of a three-team trade involving Bohm and Arenado remains slim. The complexities of balancing value, identifying motivated trade partners, and meeting each team’s specific needs make this a challenging scenario. While intriguing in theory, such a trade seems more fitting for offseason speculation than reality.
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