Could the Phillies realistically acquire Juan Soto? Soto is undoubtedly the top target this offseason, perfectly suiting the Phillies’ desire for a young, proven, power-hitting outfielder with a disciplined approach at the plate.
However, Soto’s price tag will be substantial. While he’s not expected to reach Shohei Ohtani’s historic 10-year, $700 million deal, it’s likely he’ll surpass Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426 million contract and Aaron Judge’s nine-year, $360 million deal with the Yankees. The 26-year-old star is likely looking at a 12- or 13-year contract over $500 million, possibly even exceeding $600 million. Rumors point to a Yankees return, especially after Soto’s dramatic three-run homer in Game 5 of the ALCS that helped secure their World Series berth. Yet, Soto isn’t expected to grant New York any “hometown” discount, meaning other teams willing to pay a premium have a legitimate shot.
So, could the Phillies be contenders? Owner John Middleton has already invested significantly in the roster, with projected payroll for the 2025 luxury tax threshold at $281.5 million, according to Cot’s Contracts. Key players like Zack Wheeler ($42 million), Trea Turner ($27.7 million), Bryce Harper ($26.5 million), Aaron Nola ($24.5 million), J.T. Realmuto ($23.8 million), Nick Castellanos, and Kyle Schwarber (both $20 million) will all be earning upwards of $20 million.
Regarding Soto’s expected contract, the average annual values (AAV) for possible deals could range from $50 million for a 10-year, $500 million contract to $60 million for a 10-year, $600 million deal. The Phillies might find this doable if Soto agrees to deferred payments similar to Ohtani’s deal, where he deferred most of his earnings until the contract ends, reducing the immediate impact on the luxury tax.
Currently, the Phillies don’t use deferred contracts, but they could make an exception for Soto. Deferring payments to start at the end of Trea Turner’s contract might make it feasible for Middleton to stomach $50 million now, knowing it will have less impact a decade from now.
After 2025, the payroll situation eases:
– 2026: $182.5 million
– 2027: $145 million
– 2028: $103.5 million
– 2029: $98.4 million
Juan Soto
By 2026, only five players will have salaries over $20 million, with Castellanos off the books in 2027 and Wheeler in 2028. This could create a future financial path to manage Soto’s salary, even if it means going past the $281 million tax threshold next season and potentially nearing $300 million.
While the odds of landing Soto are long, there’s a possibility. The Phillies have surprised before, like when Ruben Amaro Jr. signed Cliff Lee and with Bryce Harper’s blockbuster deal. The front office has some major decisions ahead, but the Phillies could explore a route inspired by the Ohtani structure to make Soto in Philadelphia a reality.
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