Whether used for fantasy baseball or simply to deepen one’s understanding of analytics when following a favorite team, platforms like FanGraphs provide valuable resources for baseball fans to explore the science of the game and analyze detailed statistics. FanGraphs consolidates projections from various sources, including ZiPS, THE BAT, and Steamer, which MLB.com has praised as “one of the most accurate predictors in the industry.”
Steamer’s projections for the 2025 Philadelphia Phillies reveal a mix of trends: some players appear poised to improve or bounce back from a challenging 2024, while others are expected to face significant regression.
3 Phillies Projected to Decline in 2025, According to Steamer
Statistics like home runs, RBIs, and strikeouts often dominate the conversation, but underlying factors driving these numbers are what make projection systems so insightful. With that in mind, here are three Phillies players Steamer forecasts will take a step back in 2025:
Alec Bohm
Alec Bohm’s meteoric rise in 2024, including an All-Star nod and early MVP contention, has given way to a sharp decline. After maintaining a batting average above .300 deep into the season and competing for the league lead in RBIs, his performance plummeted. A poor 1-for-13 showing in the playoffs further soured fans, leading to offseason trade speculation.
Steamer projects regression in Bohm’s power (ISO) and strikeout rate, with little improvement in his triple slash line (batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage). His projected RBI total drops from 97 to 75, undermining his offensive value, while his defensive metrics are expected to revert to below average. Steamer predicts his WAR will fall from 3.5 to 2.6, fueling doubts about the Phillies’ decision to retain him.
Brandon Marsh
After a solid 2024 campaign with a .249/.328/.419 line, career-high 16 home runs, and 60 RBIs, Marsh faces a less optimistic outlook for 2025. Steamer suggests that the addition of Max Kepler could reduce Marsh’s playing time, and it projects small declines in key metrics such as walk rate, ISO, and BABIP, along with modest improvements in strikeout rate.
Steamer also sees Marsh as a liability in center field, particularly compared to Johan Rojas, a superior defender. If Marsh shifts to center to accommodate Kepler in left field, his overall value could drop further. With a projected WAR decline from 3.1 to 1.8, Marsh’s future with the Phillies may come under scrutiny.
Matt Strahm
Matt Strahm’s dominant 2024 season, highlighted by a 1.87 ERA, All-Star selection, and 2.5 fWAR, will be tough to replicate. While Steamer still regards him as the bullpen’s anchor, it predicts significant regression in key areas. His FIP is projected to rise from 2.29 to 3.41, pushing his ERA above 3.00.
Additionally, Steamer foresees declines in Strahm’s strikeout rate (K/9), walk rate (BB/9), and home run prevention (HR/9), bringing him closer to his pre-2024 career averages. If these projections hold, Strahm’s decline could signal broader issues for the Phillies’ bullpen in 2025.
Ultimately, projection systems like Steamer provide insights, but they’re not definitive. How players like Bohm, Marsh, and Strahm perform in 2025 will be decided on the field. That’s why the game is played.
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