Tight end involvement and usage could play a significant role in the Chiefs vs. Bills matchup. While statistics may not always tell the whole story in the NFL, certain trends are worth tracking ahead of key games, including Sunday’s AFC showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills.
This game marks the eighth meeting between star quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Mahomes holds a slight advantage in their previous seven encounters, leading 4-3, including playoff wins. The Bills have won the last three regular-season matchups, but the Chiefs have claimed victory in all three postseason meetings. Notably, five of their seven games have been decided by nine points or less, with the last four matchups being even closer, ending within six points.
Key statistics to watch as Sunday approaches include:
Tight End Target Shares
Travis Kelce remains the most reliable target in Kansas City’s offense, showcasing his critical connection with Mahomes. Kelce’s significant impact is highlighted by his 29.73% share of the Chiefs’ air yards this season, per Next Gen Stats, and his 32 receptions over the last three weeks, which lead the league in that period. He has also converted 17 of those catches into first downs, ranking second in the NFL. The Bills’ tight end situation, featuring Dalton Kincaid as their top target this season, takes a twist with Kincaid ruled out due to injury. This could mean increased targets for Dawson Knox, but the absence of Kincaid might relieve some pressure on Kansas City’s defense, which has struggled to contain tight ends.
Rushing Success for Hunt and Cook
The running games of Kareem Hunt and James Cook have been pivotal for their respective teams. Hunt, who joined the Chiefs after Week 2 without attending training camp, has managed 565 scrimmage yards in just six games. Cook, on the other side, has provided the Bills with crucial offensive balance. Both rank in the NFL’s top 10 for rushing success rate, with Hunt at 56.8% (6th) and Cook at 55.5% (9th), according to Pro Football Reference. While quarterbacks often draw the spotlight, consistent rushing success from Hunt and Cook could be key to controlling the game’s tempo.
Opponent Passing Yards Per Game
Both the Chiefs and the Bills have well-coached defenses known for their strong execution. Each team sits near the middle of the league in terms of passing yards allowed per game, with Kansas City ranking 14th (206.7 yards) and Buffalo at 18th (212.9 yards), as reported by Team Rankings. Given the history of Mahomes vs. Allen matchups, explosive downfield plays may be rare. The team that best limits yardage after the catch and downfield gains could ultimately secure the edge in this high-stakes contest.
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