NFL Week 11 Picks: Bills Hand Chiefs First Loss, Ravens Sneak Past Steelers, Eagles Beat Commanders
As Week 11 approaches, it’s baffling how the Kansas City Chiefs have maintained an undefeated record. Each week, they find a new way to pull off a victory, often defying expectations. Whether it’s a blocked field goal at the last moment or a last-minute play, they’ve managed to stay perfect, even in games they seemed sure to lose.
It’s almost become a running joke that the Chiefs’ success is tied to the Hallmark Channel’s announcement of a Christmas movie about the team—a lighthearted, yet oddly fitting explanation for their magical season.
However, Kansas City’s toughest challenge awaits in the form of the Buffalo Bills. Will Buffalo finally disrupt their flawless streak, or will the Chiefs’ winning ways continue for another week? Let’s jump into the Week 11 picks:
Washington (7-3) at Philadelphia (7-2)
Game Time**: Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime)
Pick Against the Spread**: Eagles (-3 at FanDuel)
The NFC East has become the most exciting division in the NFL, marked by competitive and unpredictable matchups. The Eagles dominated the Cowboys last week and now face the surprising Washington Commanders. Washington has improved significantly over the past 18 months, shedding past woes with a new quarterback and renewed playoff aspirations. Yet, the Eagles’ formidable running game, led by Saquon Barkley, could be too much for Washington’s defense, which ranks fifth-worst in stopping the run.
Prediction: Eagles win 28-21.
Baltimore (7-3) at Pittsburgh (7-2)
Game Time: 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pick Against the Spread**: Ravens (-3 at BetMGM)
Baltimore and Pittsburgh games are always a battle, especially with John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin at the helm—coaches who know each other’s playbooks inside and out. Pittsburgh’s defense has historically stifled Lamar Jackson, holding him to a 2-4 record with seven interceptions. However, Derrick Henry’s potential impact on Baltimore’s ground game could tip the scales.
Prediction: Ravens win 23-20.
Atlanta (6-4) at Denver (5-5)
Game Time: 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox)
Pick Against the Spread: Broncos (-1.5 at FanDuel)
Both teams come off heartbreaking Week 10 losses. The Falcons fell short due to missed field goals, while the Broncos saw their victory hopes dashed by a blocked field goal against Kansas City. Denver’s stout defense, particularly against the pass, could prove decisive.
Prediction: Broncos win 20-17.
Kansas City (9-0) at Buffalo (8-2)
Game Time: 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Pick Against the Spread: Bills (-2.5 at DraftKings)
This marquee matchup could be Week 11’s highlight. The Chiefs have narrowly escaped defeat multiple times this season, often in dramatic fashion. However, the Bills have a strong recent history in regular-season games against Kansas City, largely due to Josh Allen’s exceptional performances. Mahomes, conversely, has struggled in these matchups, posting six interceptions in the last three regular-season meetings.
Prediction: Bills end the Chiefs’ unbeaten run, winning 27-24.
Cincinnati (4-6) at L.A. Chargers (6-3)
Game Time: 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
Pick Against the Spread: Bengals (+1.5 at FanDuel)
Despite being 4-6, the Bengals have been flexed to the Sunday night slot, offering a chance to showcase Joe Burrow’s high-risk, high-reward play. The Chargers’ defense has been formidable against top quarterbacks, but if Burrow can find success, Cincinnati could capitalize.
Prediction: Bengals win 27-20.
Other Picks:
– Packers 27-17 over Bears
– Lions 34-13 over Jaguars
– Vikings 24-17 over Titans
– Dolphins 30-20 over Raiders
– Rams 24-16 over Patriots
– Colts 23-20 over Jets
– Browns 23-16 over Saints
– 49ers 34-24 over Seahawks
– Texans 31-17 over Cowboys
Teams on Bye: Giants, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Panthers
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