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The Tigers face a pivotal decision regarding their catching lineup. With Carson Kelly approaching free agency and Dillon Dingler showing promise in Toledo, the Detroit Tigers must soon decide the future of their catcher position. The next 10 days, leading up to the trade deadline, will be crucial as factors like Kelly’s impending free agency and Dingler’s successful season will influence Scott Harris and Jeff Greenberg’s decisions.
Carson Kelly is likely to be traded by July 31. Harris and A.J. Hinch made a strategic move last August by claiming the then 29-year-old catcher off waivers from the Arizona Diamondbacks. The Tigers have excelled in developing catchers, improving Kelly’s game significantly, much like they did with Jake Rogers.
Both Tigers catchers excel in defensive metrics, including framing, blocking, pop times, and throwing ability. While Rogers might be preferred slightly behind the plate, both are above-average catchers and vital to the team’s strength. However, Rogers has two years left before free agency, while Kelly will be a free agent at the season’s end. The Tigers might extend Kelly or trade him and re-sign him in the offseason, but trading him now seems logical.
Kelly is having an exceptional season at the plate. While Rogers has been the better performer over the past three years, Kelly has had a resurgence with the Tigers, marking the best offensive season of his career at age 30. Rogers is struggling offensively this year, making Kelly a more attractive trade asset.
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Carson Kelly 2022-2024 Statistics:
- 2022: 354 PA, 74 wRC+, 20.1% K%, 8.2% BB%, 0.123 ISO, 0.6 WAR
- 2023: 151 PA, 56 wRC+, 26.5% K%, 9.3% BB%, 0.081 ISO, 0.1 WAR
- 2024: 191 PA, 108 wRC+, 19.9% K%, 8.4% BB%, 0.160 ISO, 1.6 WAR
Jake Rogers 2021-2024 Statistics:
- 2021: 127 PA, 115 wRC+, 36.2% K%, 8.7% BB%, 0.257 ISO, 0.9 WAR
- 2023: 365 PA, 97 wRC+, 32.3% K%, 7.7% BB%, 0.224 ISO, 2.5 WAR
- 2024: 199 PA, 71 wRC+, 30.2% K%, 5.0% BB%, 0.156 ISO, 1.2 WAR
Kelly is arguably the most valuable catcher available for trade in the next 10 days. The Tigers could trade him for a prospect just outside the top 100 or package him with Jack Flaherty for a better return.
Additionally, Dillon Dingler’s performance in Triple-A with a 116 wRC+ and 12 home runs in 66 games strengthens his case. He has significantly reduced his strikeout rate and improved his power, making him a promising candidate for promotion.
Dingler is a solid defensive catcher with good hands, athleticism, pop times, and a strong arm. The Tigers need to assess his potential and may benefit from trading Kelly to give Dingler an opportunity. Extending Kelly or trading him and re-signing him in the offseason are also options if Dingler does not impress.
Rogers and Kelly are both strong defensively, but neither is left-handed. Rogers might be better at calling games, especially as Tarik Skubal’s regular catcher. Kelly has been the better hitter this year, but the Tigers need to decide if they prefer Rogers’ power or Kelly’s contact ability.
The Tigers could also consider trading Dingler or Rogers, depending on their confidence in Dingler’s hitting ability and Kelly’s willingness to sign a team-friendly deal. Rogers’ current offensive struggles and his value as a defensive catcher may influence this decision.
Dingler deserves a chance to prove himself, and Kelly likely wants to explore free agency rather than sign a short-term extension. The Tigers will soon decide, likely trading Kelly and giving Dingler his shot while keeping Rogers as the primary catcher. However, unexpected moves could still happen.
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